New Hampshire 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary

The New Hampshire 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for September 8, 2026. The model favors Stefany Shaheen at 64%, ahead of Maura Sullivan at 25% in a 7-candidate field. Maura Sullivan leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Stefany Shaheen — 64%
2. Maura Sullivan — 25%
3. Christian Urrutia — 2%
4. Heath Howard — 2%
5. Bill Conlin — 2%
6. Carleigh Beriont — 2%
7. Sarah Chadzynski — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model