New Hampshire 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary
The New Hampshire 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for September 8, 2026. The model sees a close race: Maura Sullivan edges Stefany Shaheen, 49% to 41% in a 7-candidate field. Maura Sullivan leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Maura Sullivan — 49%
- Stefany Shaheen — 41%
- Christian Urrutia — 3%
- Heath Howard — 2%
- Carleigh Beriont — 2%
- Sarah Chadzynski — 2%
- Bill Conlin — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.