North Carolina 11th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The North Carolina 11th — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Chuck Edwards the heavy favorite at 96%, with Adam Smith at 4%. Chuck Edwards is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Chuck Edwards (incumbent) — 96%
- Adam Smith — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.