North Carolina 10th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The North Carolina 10th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Ashley Bell the clear favorite at 80%, ahead of West Caudle at 6% in a 6-candidate field. Ashley Bell leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Ashley Bell — 80%
2. West Caudle — 6%
3. Mir Yarfitz — 4%
4. Harry Morley — 3%
5. Marcus Pearson — 3%
6. Ralph Scott Jr. — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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