North Carolina 5th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The North Carolina 5th — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Virginia Foxx the heavy favorite at 91%, with Steve Girard at 3% in a 4-candidate field. Virginia Foxx is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Virginia Foxx (incumbent) — 91%
- Steve Girard — 3%
- Joey Osborne — 3%
- Chad Williams — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.