North Carolina 1st — House 2026 Rep Primary

The North Carolina 1st — House rep primary is scheduled for March 3, 2026. The model makes Laurie Buckhout the clear favorite at 89%, ahead of Asa Buck at 3% in a 5-candidate field. Laurie Buckhout leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Laurie Buckhout — 89%
2. Asa Buck — 3%
3. Ashley-Nicole Russell — 3%
4. Bobby Hanig — 3%
5. Eric Rouse — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model