North Carolina 1st — House 2026 General Election
The North Carolina 1st — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Democrat Don Davis edges Republican Greg Murphy, 51% to 49%. Don Davis is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Don Davis (incumbent) — 51%
- Greg Murphy (incumbent) — 49%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.