North Carolina 1st — House 2026 General Election
The North Carolina 1st — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model sees a close race: Republican Laurie Buckhout edges Democrat Don Davis, 50% to 50%. Don Davis leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements and incumbent Don Davis trails in the forecast. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Laurie Buckhout — 50%
- Don Davis (incumbent) — 50%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated September 11, 2026.