North Carolina 1st — House 2026 General Election
The North Carolina 1st — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Democrat Don Davis at 57%, ahead of Republican Laurie Buckhout at 43%. Don Davis is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Don Davis (incumbent) — 57%
- Laurie Buckhout — 43%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.