Montana 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Montana 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model sees a close race: Ryan Busse edges Sam Forstag, 49% to 45% in a 4-candidate field. Sam Forstag leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ryan Busse — 49%
- Sam Forstag — 45%
- Russell Cleveland — 5%
- Matt Rains — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.