Montana 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Montana 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Sam Forstag at 58%, ahead of Ryan Busse at 31% in a 4-candidate field. Ryan Busse leads the field in reported fundraising and Sam Forstag has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Sam Forstag — 58%
- Ryan Busse — 31%
- Russell Cleveland — 7%
- Matt Rains — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.