Missouri 8th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Missouri 8th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Jason Smith the heavy favorite at 96%, with Gordon Heslop at 4%. Jason Smith is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jason Smith (incumbent) — 96%
- Gordon Heslop — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.