Missouri 4th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Missouri 4th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Mark Alford the heavy favorite at 94%, with Heather Shelton at 3% in a 3-candidate field. Mark Alford is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Mark Alford (incumbent) — 94%
- Heather Shelton — 3%
- Scott Vera — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.