Missouri 4th — House 2026 General Election
The Missouri 4th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Mark Alford the heavy favorite at 100%, with Democrat Hartzell Gray at 0%. Mark Alford is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Hartzell Gray has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Mark Alford (incumbent) — 100%
- Hartzell Gray — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.