Missouri 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Missouri 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Hartzell Gray the clear favorite at 78%, ahead of Jordan Herrera at 4% in a 7-candidate field. Hartzell Gray leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Hartzell Gray — 78%
- Jordan Herrera — 4%
- Jeanette Cass — 4%
- Randy Miller — 4%
- G Rick — 4%
- Ashleigh Rogers — 4%
- Wayne Russell — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.