Missouri 2nd — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Missouri 2nd — House rep primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Ann Wagner the clear favorite at 89%, ahead of Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes at 3% in a 5-candidate field. Ann Wagner is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Ann Wagner (incumbent) — 89%
  2. Elizabeth Sparks-Holmes — 3%
  3. Peter Pfeifer — 3%
  4. Brandon Wilkinson — 3%
  5. Matthew Grant — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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