Missouri 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Missouri 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model favors Wesley Bell at 66%, ahead of Cori Bush at 28% in a 5-candidate field. Wesley Bell is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Cori Bush has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Wesley Bell (incumbent) — 66%
- Cori Bush — 28%
- Carl Harris — 2%
- Carl E. Henderson — 2%
- Alissa Murphy — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.