Minnesota 6th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Minnesota 6th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 11, 2026. The model makes Tom Emmer the heavy favorite at 97%, with Mike Foley at 3%. Tom Emmer is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Tom Emmer (incumbent) — 97%
- Mike Foley — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.