Minnesota 1st — House 2026 General Election
The Minnesota 1st — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican Brad Finstad at 68%, ahead of Democrat Jake Johnson at 32%. Brad Finstad is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Jake Johnson has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Brad Finstad (incumbent) — 68%
- Jake Johnson — 32%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.