Michigan 12th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Michigan 12th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Rashida Tlaib the heavy favorite at 94%, with Shanelle Jackson at 3% in a 3-candidate field. Rashida Tlaib is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Rashida Tlaib (incumbent) — 94%
- Shanelle Jackson — 3%
- Byron Nolen — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.