Michigan 10th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Michigan 10th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Mike Bouchard the clear favorite at 80%, ahead of Robert Lulgjuraj at 15% in a 4-candidate field. Mike Bouchard leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Mike Bouchard — 80%
2. Robert Lulgjuraj — 15%
3. Justin Kirk — 2%
4. Steffan Demetropoulous — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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