Michigan 1st — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Michigan 1st — House rep primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model favors Jack Bergman at 57%, ahead of Matthew DenOtter at 42% in a 3-candidate field. Jack Bergman is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jack Bergman (incumbent) — 57%
- Matthew DenOtter — 42%
- Justin Michal — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated September 11, 2026.