Michigan 1st — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Michigan 1st — House rep primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model favors Jack Bergman at 56%, ahead of Matthew DenOtter at 42% in a 3-candidate field. Jack Bergman is the incumbent and has the most tracked endorsements and Matthew DenOtter leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jack Bergman (incumbent) — 56%
- Matthew DenOtter — 42%
- Justin Michal — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.