Maryland 5th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Maryland 5th — House rep primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Michelle Talkington the clear favorite at 80%, ahead of Chris Chaffee at 7% in a 4-candidate field. Michelle Talkington leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Michelle Talkington — 80%
  2. Chris Chaffee — 7%
  3. Bryan DuVal Cubero — 7%
  4. Jordan Eversley — 7%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model