Maryland 3rd — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Maryland 3rd — House dem primary is scheduled for June 23, 2026. The model makes Sarah Elfreth the clear favorite at 84%, ahead of Austin Dyches at 3% in a 7-candidate field. Sarah Elfreth is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Sarah Elfreth (incumbent) — 84%
- Austin Dyches — 3%
- Jennifer Cross — 3%
- Sean Hammond — 3%
- Robert Morrison — 3%
- John Rea — 3%
- Felix Seier — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.