Massachusetts 4th — House 2026 General Election
The Massachusetts 4th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Democrat Jake Auchincloss the heavy favorite at 100%, with Republican Tom Stalcup at 0%. Jake Auchincloss is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jake Auchincloss (incumbent) — 100%
- Tom Stalcup — 0%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.