Massachusetts 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Massachusetts 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for September 1, 2026. The model makes Richard Neal the clear favorite at 87%, ahead of Jeromie Whalen at 4% in a 5-candidate field. Richard Neal is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Richard Neal (incumbent) — 87%
- Jeromie Whalen — 4%
- Anthony Celata — 3%
- Jarret Dewberry — 3%
- Nathan Tracy — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.