Louisiana 4th — House 2026 Primary
The Louisiana 4th — House primary is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican Mike Johnson at 60%, ahead of Republican Mike Nichols at 14% in a 5-candidate field. Mike Johnson is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Mike Johnson (incumbent) — 60%
- Mike Nichols — 14%
- Matt Gromlich — 11%
- Conrad Cable — 10%
- Josh Morott — 5%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.