Louisiana 4th — House 2026 Primary

The Louisiana 4th — House primary is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The model has Republican Mike Johnson narrowly ahead of Democrat Conrad Cable, 49% to 29% in a 5-candidate field. Mike Johnson is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Mike Johnson (incumbent) — 49%
2. Conrad Cable — 29%
3. Matt Gromlich — 11%
4. Mike Nichols — 8%
5. Josh Morott — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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