Louisiana 1st — House 2026 Primary

The Louisiana 1st — House primary is scheduled for November 3, 2026. The model favors Republican Steve Scalise at 66%, ahead of Democrat Lauren Jewett at 22% in a 4-candidate field. Steve Scalise is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Steve Scalise (incumbent) — 66%
2. Lauren Jewett — 22%
3. Randall Arrington — 7%
4. Jim Long — 6%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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