Kentucky 6th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Kentucky 6th — House rep primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model makes Ralph Alvarado the clear favorite at 76%, ahead of Ryan Dotson at 12% in a 4-candidate field. Ralph Alvarado leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ralph Alvarado — 76%
- Ryan Dotson — 12%
- Greg Plucinski — 9%
- Steve Shannon — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.