Kentucky 5th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Kentucky 5th — House rep primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model makes Hal Rogers the clear favorite at 88%, ahead of Kevin Smith at 3% in a 5-candidate field. Hal Rogers is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Hal Rogers (incumbent) — 88%
- Kevin Smith — 3%
- Benjamin Hurley — 3%
- Brandon Monhollon — 3%
- Jerry Lee Shelton — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.