Kentucky 3rd — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Kentucky 3rd — House dem primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model makes Morgan McGarvey the heavy favorite at 97%, with Jared Randall at 3%. Morgan McGarvey is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Morgan McGarvey (incumbent) — 97%
- Jared Randall — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.