Kansas 4th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Kansas 4th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Ron Estes the heavy favorite at 97%, with Michael Gaynor at 3%. Ron Estes is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ron Estes (incumbent) — 97%
- Michael Gaynor — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.