Kansas 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Kansas 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model makes Katy Tyndell the clear favorite at 75%, ahead of Chris Carmichael at 7% in a 6-candidate field. Katy Tyndell leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Katy Tyndell — 75%
2. Chris Carmichael — 7%
3. Cole Epley — 4%
4. Ryan Gilbert — 4%
5. Jordan Mitchell — 4%
6. Daniel Schneider — 4%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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