Kansas 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Kansas 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The model has Katy Tyndell narrowly ahead of Chris Carmichael, 50% to 19% in a 6-candidate field. Katy Tyndell leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Katy Tyndell — 50%
- Chris Carmichael — 19%
- Cole Epley — 8%
- Ryan Gilbert — 8%
- Jordan Mitchell — 8%
- Daniel Schneider — 8%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.