Indiana 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Indiana 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for May 5, 2026. The model sees a close race: Drew Cox edges Paul McPherson, 19% to 15% in a 9-candidate field. Paul McPherson leads the field in reported fundraising and Drew Cox has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Drew Cox — 19%
- Paul McPherson — 15%
- Joe Mackey — 9%
- Roger Day — 9%
- Darin Patrick Griesey — 9%
- Thomas Hall — 9%
- Robert Lovely — 9%
- Jayden McCash — 9%
+1 more candidates
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.