Indiana 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Indiana 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for May 5, 2026. The model favors Drew Cox at 59%, ahead of Joe Mackey at 6% in a 9-candidate field. Drew Cox leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Drew Cox — 59%
  2. Joe Mackey — 6%
  3. Paul McPherson — 5%
  4. Roger Day — 5%
  5. Darin Patrick Griesey — 5%
  6. Thomas Hall — 5%
  7. Robert Lovely — 5%
  8. Jayden McCash — 5%

+1 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model