Illinois 5th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Illinois 5th — House dem primary is scheduled for March 17, 2026. The model makes Mike Quigley the heavy favorite at 91%, with Matt Conroy at 3% in a 4-candidate field. Mike Quigley is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Mike Quigley (incumbent) — 91%
- Matt Conroy — 3%
- Ellen Corley — 3%
- Anthony Tamez — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.