Idaho 2nd — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Idaho 2nd — House rep primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026. The model makes Mike Simpson the heavy favorite at 94%, with Perry Shumway at 3% in a 3-candidate field. Mike Simpson is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Mike Simpson (incumbent) — 94%
- Perry Shumway — 3%
- Brian Keene — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.