Iowa 4th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Iowa 4th — House dem primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes David Dawson the heavy favorite at 92%, with Ashley WolfTornabane at 4% in a 3-candidate field. David Dawson leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- David Dawson — 92%
- Ashley WolfTornabane — 4%
- Stephanie Steiner — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.