Hawaii 2nd — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Hawaii 2nd — House dem primary is scheduled for August 8, 2026. The model makes Jill Tokuda the heavy favorite at 92%, with Kirill Basin at 3% in a 4-candidate field. Jill Tokuda is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jill Tokuda (incumbent) — 92%
- Kirill Basin — 3%
- Greg Guithues — 3%
- Steven King — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.