Hawaii 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Hawaii 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for August 8, 2026. The model favors Ed Case at 71%, ahead of Jarrett Keohokalole at 23% in a 5-candidate field. Ed Case is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Jarrett Keohokalole has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Ed Case (incumbent) — 71%
  2. Jarrett Keohokalole — 23%
  3. Ben Fatula — 2%
  4. Jennifer Booker — 2%
  5. Nicholas Kiswanto — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model