Hawaii 1st — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Hawaii 1st — House dem primary is scheduled for August 8, 2026. The model sees a close race: Ed Case edges Jarrett Keohokalole, 54% to 44% in a 3-candidate field. Ed Case is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Jarrett Keohokalole has the most tracked endorsements. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Ed Case (incumbent) — 54%
- Jarrett Keohokalole — 44%
- Ben Fatula — 2%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.