Florida 23th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Florida 23th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model favors Jared Gurfein at 66%, ahead of Sendra Dorcé at 10% in a 5-candidate field. Jared Gurfein leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Jared Gurfein — 66%
  2. Sendra Dorcé — 10%
  3. Joe Kaufman — 8%
  4. Paola Branda — 8%
  5. Michaelangelo Collins Hamilton — 8%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model