Florida 23th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Florida 23th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model favors Jared Gurfein at 66%, ahead of Sendra Dorcé at 10% in a 5-candidate field. Jared Gurfein leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Jared Gurfein — 66%
- Sendra Dorcé — 10%
- Joe Kaufman — 8%
- Paola Branda — 8%
- Michaelangelo Collins Hamilton — 8%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.