Florida 22th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Florida 22th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model favors Michael Carbonara at 72%, ahead of Belinda Keiser at 11% in a 7-candidate field. Michael Carbonara leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Michael Carbonara — 72%
  2. Belinda Keiser — 11%
  3. Casey Askar — 8%
  4. David Burck — 2%
  5. Terri Hasdorff — 2%
  6. Michael Thompson — 2%
  7. Richard Evans — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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