Florida 22th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Florida 22th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model sees a close race: Michael Carbonara edges Casey Askar, 44% to 37% in a 7-candidate field. Casey Askar leads the field in reported fundraising and Michael Carbonara has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Michael Carbonara — 44%
2. Casey Askar — 37%
3. Belinda Keiser — 11%
4. David Burck — 2%
5. Terri Hasdorff — 2%
6. Michael Thompson — 2%
7. Richard Evans — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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