Florida 19th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Florida 19th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model has Catalina Lauf narrowly ahead of Jim Oberweis, 27% to 12% in a 10-candidate field. Jim Oberweis leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Catalina Lauf — 27%
2. Jim Oberweis — 12%
3. Chris Collins — 9%
4. Jim Schwartzel — 8%
5. Madison Cawthorn — 7%
6. Ola Hawatmeh — 7%
7. John Strand — 7%
8. Mike Pedersen — 7%

+2 more candidates

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model