Florida 16th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Florida 16th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model sees a close race: Tamika Lyles edges Jon Harris, 26% to 20% in a 5-candidate field. Tamika Lyles leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Tamika Lyles — 26%
- Jon Harris — 20%
- Glenn Pearson — 20%
- Jan Schneider — 17%
- Kelly Kirschner — 16%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.