Florida 16th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Florida 16th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model sees a close race: Tamika Lyles edges Jon Harris, 26% to 20% in a 5-candidate field. Tamika Lyles leads the field in reported fundraising. Public polling is available for this race and feeds the forecast alongside fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Tamika Lyles — 26%
  2. Jon Harris — 20%
  3. Glenn Pearson — 20%
  4. Jan Schneider — 17%
  5. Kelly Kirschner — 16%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model