Florida 16th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Florida 16th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model has Kelly Kirschner narrowly ahead of Tamika Lyles, 49% to 15% in a 5-candidate field. Kelly Kirschner leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Kelly Kirschner — 49%
2. Tamika Lyles — 15%
3. Jon Harris — 13%
4. Glenn Pearson — 12%
5. Jan Schneider — 12%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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