Florida 14th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Florida 14th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model has Mike Beltran narrowly ahead of Kevin Steele, 50% to 39% in a 8-candidate field. Mike Beltran leads the field in reported fundraising and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Mike Beltran — 50%
2. Kevin Steele — 39%
3. John Peters — 2%
4. Bea Valenti — 2%
5. Rocky Rochford — 2%
6. Ergin Tek — 2%
7. Michael Marcel — 2%
8. Gavriel Soriano — 2%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.

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