Florida 14th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Florida 14th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes Kathy Castor the heavy favorite at 97%, with Juan Arauz at 3%. Kathy Castor is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Kathy Castor (incumbent) — 97%
- Juan Arauz — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.