Florida 11th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Florida 11th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model has Tim Wilkins narrowly ahead of Carey Baker, 54% to 35% in a 4-candidate field. Tim Wilkins leads the field in reported fundraising and Mike Wilnau has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Tim Wilkins — 54%
- Carey Baker — 35%
- Mike Wilnau — 5%
- Ivette Palomo — 5%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated September 11, 2026.