Florida 11th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Florida 11th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes Tim Wilkins the clear favorite at 80%, ahead of Carey Baker at 11% in a 4-candidate field. Tim Wilkins leads the field in reported fundraising and Mike Wilnau has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Tim Wilkins — 80%
- Carey Baker — 11%
- Mike Wilnau — 4%
- Ivette Palomo — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.