Florida 11th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Florida 11th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model favors Carey Baker at 61%, ahead of Tim Wilkins at 30% in a 4-candidate field. Carey Baker leads the field in reported fundraising and Mike Wilnau has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Carey Baker — 61%
- Tim Wilkins — 30%
- Mike Wilnau — 5%
- Ivette Palomo — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated October 26, 2026.