Florida 9th — House 2026 Rep Primary

The Florida 9th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes Thomas E. Chalifoux Jr. the clear favorite at 77%, ahead of Dan Green at 5% in a 7-candidate field. Thomas E. Chalifoux Jr. leads the field in reported fundraising and Ben Butler has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Thomas E. Chalifoux Jr. — 77%
  2. Dan Green — 5%
  3. Ben Butler — 5%
  4. Jorge Martinez — 4%
  5. Steve Rance — 3%
  6. Justin Story — 3%
  7. Marcus Carter — 3%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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