Florida 9th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Florida 9th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes Thomas Chalifoux the clear favorite at 83%, ahead of Ben Butler at 3% in a 7-candidate field. Thomas Chalifoux leads the field in reported fundraising and Ben Butler has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Thomas Chalifoux — 83%
- Ben Butler — 3%
- Steve Rance — 3%
- Justin Story — 3%
- Jorge Malavet — 3%
- Marcus Carter — 3%
- Jorge Martinez — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.