Florida 5th — House 2026 Rep Primary
The Florida 5th — House rep primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes John Rutherford the heavy favorite at 96%, with Mark Kaye at 4%. John Rutherford is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- John Rutherford (incumbent) — 96%
- Mark Kaye — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.