Florida 5th — House 2026 Dem Primary

The Florida 5th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes Rachel Grage the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Mark Heggestad at 5% in a 5-candidate field. Rachel Grage leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

  1. Rachel Grage — 79%
  2. Mark Heggestad — 5%
  3. Alex Hazen — 5%
  4. David Drew — 5%
  5. Eli Johnson — 5%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.

All 2026 race forecasts · About the model