Florida 5th — House 2026 Dem Primary
The Florida 5th — House dem primary is scheduled for August 18, 2026. The model makes Rachel Grage the heavy favorite at 92%, with Mark Heggestad at 4% in a 3-candidate field. Rachel Grage leads the field in reported fundraising. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Rachel Grage — 92%
- Mark Heggestad — 4%
- Alex Hazen — 4%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.