Florida 4th — House 2026 General Election
The Florida 4th — House general election is on November 3, 2026. The model makes Republican Aaron Bean the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Democrat Michael Kirwan at 21%. Aaron Bean is the incumbent and leads the field in reported fundraising and Michael Kirwan has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Aaron Bean (incumbent) — 79%
- Michael Kirwan — 21%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.