California 52th — House 2026 Primary
The California 52th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat Juan Vargas at 64%, ahead of Republican Jeff Belle at 21% in a 3-candidate field. Juan Vargas is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Juan Vargas (incumbent) — 64%
- Jeff Belle — 21%
- Deborah Calhoun Rhodes — 15%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.