California 51th — House 2026 Primary
The California 51th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model makes Democrat Sara Jacobs the clear favorite at 79%, ahead of Republican Ricardo Cabrera at 8% in a 4-candidate field. Sara Jacobs is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Sara Jacobs (incumbent) — 79%
- Ricardo Cabrera — 8%
- Stan Caplan — 6%
- David W. Engel — 6%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.