California 46th — House 2026 Primary
The California 46th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat Lou Correa at 63%, ahead of Republican David Pan at 27% in a 5-candidate field. Lou Correa is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Lou Correa (incumbent) — 63%
- David Pan — 27%
- Christian Mendez — 3%
- Francisco Bahena — 3%
- Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato — 3%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.