California 46th — House 2026 Primary

The California 46th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat Lou Correa at 73%, ahead of Republican David Pan at 16% in a 5-candidate field. Lou Correa is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.

Current win probabilities

1. Lou Correa (incumbent) — 73%
2. David Pan — 16%
3. Christian Mendez — 4%
4. Francisco Bahena — 4%
5. Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato — 4%

Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results. Last updated July 23, 2026.

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