California 45th — House 2026 Primary
The California 45th — House primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. The model favors Democrat Derek Tran at 63%, ahead of Republican Tom Vo at 10% in a 6-candidate field. Derek Tran is the incumbent, leads the field in reported fundraising, and has the most tracked endorsements. No public polling is available for this race, so the forecast leans on fundraising, endorsements, candidate profiles, and historical results.
Current win probabilities
- Derek Tran (incumbent) — 63%
- Tom Vo — 10%
- Chi Charlie Nguyen — 10%
- Chuong Vo — 8%
- Amy Phan West — 5%
- Mark Leonard — 5%
Probabilities update daily from polls, fundraising, endorsements, and historical results.